For many years I’ve lived by the saying “expect the unexpected” and have exhorted others to do the same. My preference for the mantra comes from my own weakness for doing just this! Whilst I enjoy change, when push comes to shove, I really like upheaval to be on my terms, not according to an outside influence.
You can probably guess where I’m going with this one…Eyjafjallajökull (AYA-feeyapla-yurkul), which started erupting last Wednesday, 14 April, beneath Iceland’s 5th largest glacier, and which, in less than a week, has had a profound impact on our lives, even if we’re not flying, were stranded or expecting someone back from their travels. This has certainly been a case of expecting the unexpected or managing uncertainty on a grand scale. From minute to minute the situation changed, as Mother Nature, through Eyjafjallajökull and the weather systems, unleashed her forces upon Northern Europe and ultimately the rest of the globe, as airports opened and closed in accordance with the rulings of the CAA, on advice from the Meteorological Office, aeroengine manufacturers, expert scientists and engineers.
Now that UK airspace has been declared open again, the recriminations have started. Just like Eyjafjallajökull itself, there had been rumblings since the weekend from certain airlines about whether the “no fly” ruling was wholly necessary. Questions were being asked about the validity of predictions modelling ash cloud movements and whether the density of ash affecting UK airspace would really affect jet engine performance in the deadly and immediate manner given in several past examples.
An article published early yesterday” Pitt volcano expert criticizes resumption of Europe jet flights” on www.post-gazette.com, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, quotes Dr. Ian Skilling, a University of Pittsburgh volcanologist and expert on Icelandic volcanoes and their impact on climate change, as saying “Volcanology, unfortunately is a more inexact science than weather forecasting”. Dr. Skilling, a British native, working at the University since 2002, will be returning to Iceland this summer, said, “there’s no shortage of molten rock and water that could let it (the eruption) go on for months or more than a year.”
Dr Ian Skilling advises, “When the magma stops interacting with the water, the plume will drop to below a few kilometres and it will then be just a local problem, not affecting the rest of the world. But exactly when it might do that is anybody’s guess”.
Whilst Dr Skilling was quoted as saying he’d not fly to Europe under the present circumstances, it’s been decided by our CAA in consultation with expert and based on measurement and observation that there is a limit of ash density in which flight is possible without catastrophic in-flight failure.
Reading the statement of the CAA Chairwoman, Dame Deirdre Hutton, issued at 7.30am this morning it’s clear the international guidance remains that any flight through volcanic ash is to be avoided. What has been established over the last few days, through an evidence-based approach, is a risk assessment of flight through low ash densities, which has resulted in a new Europe-wide standard.
”Our way forward is based on international data and evidence from previous volcanic ash incidents, new data collected from test flights and additional analysis from manufacturers over the past few days. It is a conservative model allowing a significant buffer on top of the level the experts feel may pose a risk.” (Dame Deirdre Hutton)
So, before blaming the authorities and accusing them of an about face, pause for a moment and reflect upon the immense amounts of work which have gone on behind the scenes, the collection of evidence, the diligent analysis, the objective reviews of the resulting evidence. Above all the collaborative efforts of all those concerned, their clear thinking and cool headedness in the face of mounting commercial pressure.
Mother Nature has reminded us that we need to deploy collaborative thinking, unleash our creative powers and work together. Meaningful risk assessments and contingency planning are often seen as expensive and unnecessary, and are sacrificed in the interests of so-called cost savings, improved efficiency and increased profitability. Some, it would seem, would have taken to the skies earlier, because the danger appeared to have been over-stated and the evidence not immediately tangible.
Perhaps the one area of criticism, I would have for these diligent and careful authorities, is that they didn’t share enough invormation with the general public as to how they were tackling the problem. We knew for instance that measurements were being taken but for what purpose? Did we understand the strategy? Did we appreciate the timescales and the work needed to achieve the potential outcome?
In the face of no information, our brains substitute “stories”. We speculate and the spin doctors have immense fun at the expense of the right intentions, which can be as destructive as volcanic erruptions.
Sources
Pitt volcano expert criticizes resumption of Europe jet flights
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
By Sean D. Hamill, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/10110/1051857-82.stm#ixzz0ldxGj5R4 last accessed 20 April 2010
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/travelnews/7612522/Iceland-volcano-CAA-chiefs-statement-in-full.html last accessed 21 April 2010
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